Here are the four key catalysts for Trina over the next twelve months:
1. Strong Shipment Growth (3Q09): Trina will ship 323MW with QoQ shipment growth rates of 55% in 3Q09 and 13% in 4Q09, which will still clearly demonstrate an increase in market share.
2. Installations in domestic China market (4Q09): Trina has filed for 20MW of rooftop projects for MoF subsidy. Although MoF is unlikely to approve all 20MW due to 20MW cap for each province, the submitted projects may still continue with financial support from Jiangsu provincial DRC. Installations will start in 4Q09, which will help improve shipment growth.
3. Cost Reduction (4Q09): In 2Q09, Trina reported multi non-Si manufacturing costs of $0.73/Wp (excluding depreciation), which implies a blended non-Si cost of $0.88/Wp, including depreciation. Management is targeting a further reduction in non-Si cost. If it were to deliver, it could make a significant positive impact on company's gross margin.
4. Credit Crisis Easing (2010): This will be a long, slow process. As government stimulus packages gain some traction, however, financial institutions get recapitalized and solar project IRR's continue to improve, project financing for solar projects should gradually improve.